{"id":7787,"date":"2023-01-12T13:48:21","date_gmt":"2023-01-12T12:48:21","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/no.staging.alfredberg.com\/?p=7787"},"modified":"2025-09-30T11:49:17","modified_gmt":"2025-09-30T09:49:17","slug":"manadsrapport-december-2022","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/no.staging.alfredberg.com\/sv\/manadsrapport-december-2022\/","title":{"rendered":"M\u00e5nadsrapport december 2022"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
\n

Marknadsentimentet i november fortsatte in i december, med en solid f\u00f6rb\u00e4ttring av kreditspreadar inom Nordic investment grade. S\u00e4rskilt m\u00e4rkbart under f\u00f6rsta halvan av december, samtidigt som nyemissionsmarknaden fortsatte att vara aktiv. Mot slutet av m\u00e5naden minskade dock b\u00e5de minskningen av kreditp\u00e5slag, emissionsvolymerna och andrahandsvolymerna. Det kan tyda p\u00e5 att julst\u00e4mningen kom tidigt p\u00e5 kreditmarknaderna.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

R\u00e4ntorna var ocks\u00e5 volatila i december. De norska r\u00e4ntorna sj\u00f6nk kraftigt under f\u00f6rsta halvan av m\u00e5naden f\u00f6r att sedan delvis \u00e5terh\u00e4mta sig mot slutet. Detta skedde samtidigt som r\u00e4ntorna steg i b\u00e5de Europa, Sverige och USA. Norges Bank var en av de f\u00f6rsta centralbankerna att h\u00f6ja r\u00e4ntorna h\u00f6sten 2021, och \u00e4r nu en av de f\u00f6rsta att konstatera att de n\u00e4rmar sig r\u00e4ntetoppen. Norska 5-\u00e5riga swappr\u00e4ntor slutade \u00e5ret p\u00e5 3,25 %, cirka 0,75 % l\u00e4gre \u00e4n toppen fr\u00e5n oktober, medan europeiska r\u00e4ntor slutade \u00e5ret ungef\u00e4r p\u00e5 sin h\u00f6gsta niv\u00e5.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

I ekonomiska sammanhang handlar det mest om huruvida en l\u00e5gkonjunktur kommer, och i s\u00e5 fall hur djup och l\u00e5ngvarig den blir. Det diskuteras ocks\u00e5 om de senaste inflationssiffrorna tyder p\u00e5 att centralbankerna har kontroll \u00f6ver inflationsutvecklingen eller inte. Framtidsindikatorerna f\u00f6r Sverige, Norge,  Europa och USA forts\u00e4tter att visa en dyster bild, medan faktiska siffror \u00e4r relativt stabila. Det kan tyda p\u00e5 att ekonomin har en stor anpassningsf\u00f6rm\u00e5ga!<\/p>\n\n\n\n

S\u00e4ttet vi tolkar marknaderna, en mild och kortsiktig konjunkturnedg\u00e5ng, samt en snabb normalisering av inflationsniv\u00e5n, prisas in. Det finns dock en viss sannolikhet att l\u00e5gkonjunkturen blir starkare \u00e4n v\u00e4ntat, eller att det blir sv\u00e5rare att s\u00e4nka inflationen tillbaka till det normala. Detta kan leda till os\u00e4kerhet och fluktuationer i avkastningen de f\u00f6rsta m\u00e5naderna 2023.<\/p>\n<\/div><\/div>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ekonomi och r\u00e4ntor<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Amerikansk, norsk, svensk och tysk 10-\u00e5rig swapr\u00e4nta, senaste 5 \u00e5ren<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"<_bbchartsh_QThGQzc1MTlDMUYxNDkxMk” style=”width: 945px;”><\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Utvecklingen av kreditspreadar under de senaste 12 m\u00e5naderna, fr\u00e5n toppen; Sverige, USA, Europa och Norge<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"<_bbchartsh_OEUxRkUwNDdEQjk5NDBEMk” style=”width: 945px;”><\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

V\u00e5ra r\u00e4ntefonder<\/strong>

Alfred Berg Income<\/strong> hade en bra m\u00e5nad i december. Flera sektorer klarade sig v\u00e4l, men energisektorn, den icke-cykliska konsumtionssektorn och efterst\u00e4llda bankobligationer var de starkaste bidragsgivarna. Fastighetshybridobligationer hade d\u00e4remot en negativ m\u00e5nad igen. \u00c4ven investmentbolaget Storskogen AB hade en tuff m\u00e5nad efter att b\u00e5da kreditv\u00e4rderingsinstituten nedgraderat bolaget med ett och tv\u00e5 steg. Vi har h\u00f6jt investment grade-kvoten n\u00e5got de senaste m\u00e5naderna och portf\u00f6ljen har aggregerat en h\u00f6g portf\u00f6ljr\u00e4nta.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Alfred Berg Income A<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Alfred Berg Nordic High Yield <\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Prim\u00e4rmarknaden var relativt l\u00e5ngsam 2022, med emittenter som var
avvaktande givet omv\u00e4rldsfaktorer och prisvolatilitet. Vi tror att det finns en uppd\u00e4md utbudssida av nya
obligationsemissioner som v\u00e4ntar p\u00e5 lugnare marknader. Vi f\u00f6rv\u00e4ntar oss fortsatt volatilitet och os\u00e4kerhet med anledning av det p\u00e5g\u00e5ende kriget i Ukraina och den fundamentala effekten p\u00e5 den globala ekonomin p.g.a. coronavirus. Stigande r\u00e4ntor och inflation kan utg\u00f6ra ett hot p\u00e5 l\u00e4ngre sikt. R\u00e4nteh\u00f6jningar och nedtrappning f\u00f6rv\u00e4ntas och \u00e4r inprisade i marknaden. Den nordiska high yield-marknaden domineras av obligationer med r\u00f6rlig r\u00e4nta och \u00e4r d\u00e4rmed mindre exponerad f\u00f6r den direkta effekten av stigande marknadsr\u00e4ntor. Vi tror att den nuvarande volatila marknaden kan skapa m\u00f6jligheter i f\u00f6rvaltningen och f\u00f6r den l\u00e5ngsiktiga investeraren. Vi f\u00f6rv\u00e4ntar oss att aktiviteten p\u00e5 den nordiska prim\u00e4rmarknaden tar fart fr\u00e5n mitten av januari.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Alfred Berg Nordic High Yield ACC<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Alfred Berg Nordic High Yield ESG<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Den nordiska aktiemarknaden i december<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

December var \u00e4nnu en m\u00e5nad av tillv\u00e4xt p\u00e5 de nordiska b\u00f6rserna. Internationellt var situationen n\u00e5got annorlunda, de flesta internationella index slutade i minus. 2022 var ett \u00e5r av nedg\u00e5ng p\u00e5 de flesta internationella b\u00f6rser.
Det r\u00e5der en blandad syn p\u00e5 prognosen f\u00f6r ekonomin 2023. 2022 medf\u00f6rde inflation och r\u00e4nteh\u00f6jningar samt \u00f6kad geopolitisk os\u00e4kerhet. 2023 blir \u00e5ret d\u00e5 vi ser de l\u00e5ngsiktiga konsekvenserna. Lyckligtvis har f\u00f6retagets resultat h\u00e5llit sig bra, 2022 var ett \u00e5r med stigande resultat 2021 i norden.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Nordens b\u00e4sta sektorer i december var konsumtion, infrastruktur och h\u00e4lsa. Alla tre h\u00f6r till vad som ofta kallas defensiva sektorer. Men konsumtionsvarusektorn har mycket fisk och skaldjur, och fisk- och skaldjursbest\u00e5nden styrs nu lika mycket av politik som av n\u00e5got annat. De svagaste sektorerna var IT och energi.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Alfred Berg Nordic Index<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

V\u00e5ra aktiva aktiefonder<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

De viktigaste positiva bidragsgivarna f\u00f6r Alfred Berg Nordic Gambak i december var finans-, IT- och konsumentsektorerna. Konsumtion och energi drog i negativ riktning. Fondens active share \u00e4r 68. Fonden har en \u00f6verv\u00e4gande inom finans och materialenergi. Fonden \u00e4r underviktad inom h\u00e4lsa, IT och fastigheter. Vid utg\u00e5ngen av m\u00e5naden var fondens st\u00f6rsta positioner Novo Nordisk (9,6%), Equinor (6,2%) och Sydbank (4,6%).
Aktier som bidrog mest i positiv riktning var Novo Nordisk som steg 8,7% (0,8% p\u00e5 portf\u00f6ljniv\u00e5), Sydbank som steg 13,5% (0,5%) och DS Norden som steg 15,3% under m\u00e5naden (0,2%). Equinor, som f\u00f6ll 7,2% (-0,5% p\u00e5 portf\u00f6ljbasis), Genmab, som f\u00f6ll 7,8% (-0,2%) och BW LPG, som f\u00f6ll 12,8% (-0,2), drog i negativ riktning. Under m\u00e5naden har vi \u00f6kat v\u00e5ra positioner inom bland annat Metso Outotec, TietoEvry och Kemira.
Vi har minskat positionerna Aker Solutions, Neste OY och Securitas. N\u00e5gra nyckeltal f\u00f6r portf\u00f6ljen \u00e4r aggregerade (f\u00f6rv\u00e4ntas kommande 12 m\u00e5nader) P\/E \u00e4r 11,4 mot 13,4 f\u00f6r indexet. Under de senaste tre m\u00e5naderna har konsensus EPS f\u00f6r de kommande 12 m\u00e5naderna \u00f6kat med 8% f\u00f6r portf\u00f6ljbolag.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Alfred Berg Nordic Gambak<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Alfred Berg Nordic Small Cap<\/strong> \u00f6kade under m\u00e5naden medan fondens j\u00e4mf\u00f6relseindex, Carnegie Nordic Small Cap, minskade. P\u00e5 sektorniv\u00e5 s\u00e5 var vid m\u00e5nadens slut industrisektorn den st\u00f6rsta \u00f6vervikten f\u00f6ljt av finansiella bolag. Fastighetssektorn utgjorde den st\u00f6rsta undervikten f\u00f6ljt av sektorn f\u00f6r kommunikationstj\u00e4nster. P\u00e5 bolagsniv\u00e5 s\u00e5 utgjorde positionerna i Hexatronic, Sydbank A\/S och Munters de st\u00f6rsta relativa \u00f6vervikterna. De aktier som bidrog mest till fondens relativa utveckling under m\u00e5naden var innehaven i Collector Bank, Sydbank A\/S och Munters. De aktier som utvecklades s\u00e4mst under m\u00e5naden i relativa termer var Billerud, Loomis och Gapwaves.

Vi har under m\u00e5naden bland annat k\u00f6pt aktier i TietoEvry Oyj, Kemira Oyj och Cargotec Oyj. Vi har under samma period bland annat reducerat v\u00e5ra innehav i Elkem ASA, Orion Oyj och s\u00e5lt ut innehavet i Bufab. Vi \u00e4r \u00f6verviktade inom sektorerna f\u00f6r industri och finansiella bolag och underviktade inom sektorerna f\u00f6r fastigheter och kommunikationstj\u00e4nster. Vi \u00e4r \u201dstock pickers\u201d och har d\u00e4rmed ingen uttalad sektorallokering, men bolag inom samma sektorer har vanligtvis vissa gemensamma drag. I och med detta kan v\u00e5ra sektorvikter komma att p\u00e5verkas.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Alfred Berg Nordic Small Cap ESG<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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