{"id":7268,"date":"2022-11-11T16:19:11","date_gmt":"2022-11-11T15:19:11","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/no.staging.alfredberg.com\/?p=7268"},"modified":"2024-02-21T14:37:34","modified_gmt":"2024-02-21T13:37:34","slug":"manadsrapport-oktober-2022-ekonomi-och-rantor-i-norden","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/no.staging.alfredberg.com\/sv\/manadsrapport-oktober-2022-ekonomi-och-rantor-i-norden\/","title":{"rendered":"M\u00e5nadsrapport oktober"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Oktober var en m\u00e5nad pr\u00e4glad av fortsatt os\u00e4kerhet p\u00e5 de finansiella marknaderna, med stora r\u00e4nter\u00f6relser och volatila aktiemarknader. Men d\u00e4r september resulterade i en nedg\u00e5ng p\u00e5 b\u00f6rserna hamnade de generellt p\u00e5 plussidan under oktober.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Den positiva utvecklingen i slutet av m\u00e5naden f\u00f6refaller vid f\u00f6rsta anblicken n\u00e5got ogrundad. Makrosiffrorna forts\u00e4tter att ge anledning till oro och det r\u00e5der stor os\u00e4kerhet bland investerarna. En f\u00f6rklaring \u00e4r ett tecken p\u00e5 en n\u00e5got mer f\u00f6rfallen position \u00e4n tidigare fr\u00e5n flera centralbanker. Kanske s\u00e4rskilt Australiens centralbank (RBA), som h\u00f6jde styrr\u00e4ntan med 25 punkter, efter 4 h\u00f6jningar p\u00e5 50 punkter, och en marknadsf\u00f6rv\u00e4ntning p\u00e5 nya 50 punkter. Norges Bank och ECB ger ocks\u00e5 tecken p\u00e5 att de ser effekten av r\u00e4nteh\u00f6jningarna \u00e5terspeglas i den ekonomiska aktiviteten.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u00c4ven om penningpolitiken avspeglas med en f\u00f6rdr\u00f6jning, forts\u00e4tter inflationen att vara den st\u00f6rsta os\u00e4kerheten. I Norden, Europa, England och USA \u00e4r det ih\u00e5llande h\u00f6gt, \u00e4ven om priset p\u00e5 insatsvaror har visat en bred nedg\u00e5ng. Det \u00e4r d\u00e4rf\u00f6r oroande att bidragen till dagens inflation nu ser ut att vara bredare \u00e4n tidigare. Tillsammans med starka arbetsmarknader \u00e4r det sv\u00e5rt att f\u00f6rest\u00e4lla sig att centralbankerna har inflationen under kontroll \u00e4nnu.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u00c5 andra sidan pekar indikatorer som konsumenternas f\u00f6rtroende, nedg\u00e5ng i reall\u00f6ner och h\u00f6ga lager hos f\u00f6retagen i riktning mot nedkylningstendenser. H\u00e4r uppst\u00e5r dock en kontrast mellan Europa och USA. Tidigare i utvecklingen s\u00e5g det ut som om Europa f\u00f6ljde inflationen i USA, men mycket tyder nu p\u00e5 att Europa k\u00e4nner av effekterna av en stramare penningpolitik betydligt starkare. Sedan i indikatorer som pekar p\u00e5 en nedg\u00e5ng i den ekonomiska aktiviteten, f\u00f6r de europeiska inflationssiffrorna \u00e4r fortfarande h\u00f6ga.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

I Storbritannien var det ocks\u00e5 mycket politisk oro den senaste m\u00e5naden. Liz Truss och hennes finansminister (Kwarteng) \u00e4gnade den f\u00f6rsta delen av m\u00e5naden \u00e5t att g\u00e5 tillbaka p\u00e5 den f\u00f6reslagna minibudgeten som lades fram i slutet av september. Efter starka marknadsreaktioner, f\u00f6rst\u00e4rkta av pensionsfondernas anv\u00e4ndning av Gilts som s\u00e4kerhet, backade de bara gradvis till planerna. Finanskanslern fick d\u00e5 avg\u00e5, f\u00f6ljt av Truss egen avg\u00e5ng den 20 oktober (efter 44 dagar som premi\u00e4rminister). Marknaden verkar \u00f6vertygad om att Rishi Sunak har tagit \u00f6ver rollen som premi\u00e4rminister, med Jeremy Hunt som finansminister.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Fr\u00e5n toppen; Amerikansk, norsk, svensk och tysk 10-\u00e5rig statsr\u00e4nta, senaste 3 \u00e5r<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
Kilde: Alfred Berg\/ Bloomberg<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Utvecklingen av kreditspreadar under de senaste 12 m\u00e5naderna, fr\u00e5n toppen; Sverige, USA, Europa och Norge<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
Kilde: Alfred Berg\/ Bloomberg<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

V\u00e5ra r\u00e4ntefonder<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Alfred Berg Income<\/strong> hade en svagt negativ utveckling under oktober. Icke-cyklisk konsumtion och Energi utvecklades b\u00e4st, medan fastighetssektorn var den sektor som bidrog mest negativt. Fram\u00f6ver ser vi en risk att fallissemanget stiger p\u00e5 high yield-marknaden, eftersom l\u00e5g marknadsaktivitet och h\u00f6ga r\u00e4ntor och kreditr\u00e4ntetill\u00e4gg kan bidra till en st\u00f6rre refinansieringsrisk. \u00c5 andra sidan prisar marknaden redan svagare utsikter genom en h\u00f6g avkastning, vilket ger ett bra skydd mot stigande r\u00e4ntor, kreditr\u00e4ntep\u00e5slag eller fallissemang. Vi ser d\u00e4rf\u00f6r m\u00e5nga intressanta m\u00f6jligheter p\u00e5 dagens marknad.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Alfred Berg Income A<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Alfred Berg Nordic High Yield <\/strong>hade en negativ utveckling under oktober.Aktiviteten p\u00e5 emissionsmarknaden har varit ganska l\u00e5g hittills i \u00e5r, med ett antal emittenter som avvaktar det p\u00e5g\u00e5ende l\u00e4get och prisos\u00e4kerhet. Hittills i \u00e5r \u00e4r volymen cirka 65 miljarder SEK. Under 2021 som helhet gavs l\u00e5n ut f\u00f6r n\u00e4rmare 200 miljarder svenska kronor, upp fr\u00e5n 90 miljarder svenska kronor \u00e5ret innan. I oktober emitterades tv\u00e5 obligationer med en total volym p\u00e5 cirka 3,4 miljarder SEK. FPSO-bolaget Bluewater Holding emitterade 240 miljoner USD till en r\u00e4nta p\u00e5 12,0 %, medan gruvbolaget Nordic Rutile betalade en kupongr\u00e4nta p\u00e5 12,5 % f\u00f6r att l\u00e5na 100 miljoner USD. Vi tror att det kan finnas en n\u00e5got \u00e5terh\u00e5llsam utbudssida av nya obligationer. Fram\u00f6ver f\u00f6rv\u00e4ntar vi oss fortfarande h\u00f6g volatilitet och os\u00e4kerhet med tanke p\u00e5 det ol\u00f6sta konflikten och p\u00e5g\u00e5ende kriget i Ukraina, s\u00e5v\u00e4l som den verkliga grundl\u00e4ggande effekt som coronaviruset har haft p\u00e5 den globala ekonomin. H\u00f6jda r\u00e4ntor och inflation kan utg\u00f6ra ett hot p\u00e5 l\u00e4ngre sikt. Men det senare avspeglas relativt v\u00e4l i priset p\u00e5 dagens marknad. Dessutom \u00e4r den st\u00f6rsta andelen av obligationen p\u00e5 den nordiska h\u00f6gr\u00e4ntemarknaden med r\u00f6rlig r\u00e4nta, vilket ger skydd mot den direkta effekten av h\u00f6gre marknadsr\u00e4ntor. Vi tror att dagens volatila marknad skapar m\u00f6jligheter f\u00f6r den l\u00e5ngsiktiga investeraren. Emissionsmarknaden f\u00f6rv\u00e4ntas vara mer “off and on” under de kommande m\u00e5naderna.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Alfred Berg Nordic High Yield ACC<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Alfred Berg Nordic High Yield ESG<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Den nordiska aktiemarknaden i oktober <\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

I \u00e5r levde oktober inte upp till sitt skr\u00e4mmande rykte och det nordiska indexet hamnade p\u00e5 3,3 %, m\u00e4tt i norska kronor. Det var ocks\u00e5 en rej\u00e4l uppg\u00e5ng p\u00e5 de flesta b\u00f6rser som vi brukar j\u00e4mf\u00f6ra oss med.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Det finns olika \u00e5sikter om tillst\u00e5ndet i ekonomin idag. Det g\u00e4ller Norden, V\u00e4st och v\u00e4rlden i stort. Mycket har h\u00e4nt samtidigt, vi har haft det f\u00f6rsta stora kriget i Europa p\u00e5 m\u00e5nga decennier samtidigt som v\u00e4rlden \u2013 och kanske framf\u00f6r allt Kina \u2013 fortfarande brottas med effekterna av pandemin. Sammanfattningsvis har detta orsakat st\u00f6rningar i ekonomin av s\u00e4llan sk\u00e5dade m\u00e5tt. Men vi ser nu att flaskhalsar inom bl.a. transporter h\u00e5ller p\u00e5 att l\u00f6sa sig och att arbetsmarknaden i v\u00e4rldens viktigaste ekonomi, USA, fortfarande \u00e4r god. Detta f\u00f6rst\u00e4rker v\u00e5r \u00f6vertygelse om att det vi ser \u00e4r en ekonomi i fortsatt behov av kylning, vilket \u00e4r n\u00e5got helt annat \u00e4n en l\u00e5gkonjunktur.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Vi \u00e4r mitt uppe i rapports\u00e4songen f\u00f6r tredje kvartalet. \u00c4n s\u00e5 l\u00e4nge \u00e4r siffrorna hyfsat goda, det \u00e4r fler f\u00f6retag som sl\u00e5r f\u00f6rv\u00e4ntningarna \u00e4n tv\u00e4rtom. Sammantaget har ocks\u00e5 prognoserna f\u00f6r framtida resultat \u00f6kat. Men man ska vara medveten om att det \u00e4r energisektorn som st\u00e5r f\u00f6r den st\u00f6rsta uppjusteringen.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

B\u00e4sta sektorn p\u00e5 de nordiska b\u00f6rserna i oktober var konsumentvaror, f\u00f6ljt av industri. I den motsatta \u00e4nden f\u00f6ll kommunikationstj\u00e4nster.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Alfred Berg Nordic Index<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

V\u00e5ra aktiva aktiefonder<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Alfred Berg Nordic Gambak. <\/strong>De viktigaste positiva bidragsgivarna var industrin och energisektorn. Ekonomi och h\u00e4lsa drog i negativ riktning. Active share \u00e4r 70. Fonden har fortfarande en \u00f6vervikt i energi och material. Fonden \u00e4r underviktad de flesta andra, s\u00e4rskilt industri och IT. I slutet av m\u00e5naden var fondens st\u00f6rsta positioner Novo Nordisk (9,1 %), Equinor (8,3 %) och Hexatronic (4,3 %). Aktier som bidrog mest i positiv riktning var Hexatronic som steg 36,3% (1,2% p\u00e5 portf\u00f6ljniv\u00e5), Betsson som steg 18,5% (0,5%) och H\u00f8egh Autoliners som steg 39,0% under m\u00e5naden (0,5%). I negativ riktning drog OX2, som f\u00f6ll 19,3% (-0,2% p\u00e5 portf\u00f6ljbasis), TopDanmark som f\u00f6ll 5,9% (-0,2%) och Neste som f\u00f6ll 4,8% (-0,1).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Under m\u00e5naden har vi ut\u00f6kat positionerna inom bl.a. H\u00f8egh Autoliners, Genmab och Atlac Copco. Vi har minskat i Huhtamaki, Nokia och Axfood. N\u00e5gra nyckeltal f\u00f6r portf\u00f6ljen \u00e4r att den sammanlagda (f\u00f6rv\u00e4ntade kommande 12 m\u00e5nader) P\/E \u00e4r 10,7 vs. 13,3 f\u00f6r index. Under de senaste tre m\u00e5naderna har konsensus EPS f\u00f6r de kommande 12 m\u00e5nader \u00f6kat med 8% f\u00f6r portf\u00f6ljbolagen.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Alfred Berg Nordic Gambak<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Alfred Berg Nordic Small Cap ESG<\/strong> \u00f6kade med 8% under m\u00e5naden medan fondens j\u00e4mf\u00f6relseindex, Carnegie Nordic Small Cap, \u00f6kade med 7,6%. P\u00e5 sektorniv\u00e5 s\u00e5 var vid m\u00e5nadens slut r\u00e5varor den st\u00f6rsta \u00f6vervikten (+5,6%) f\u00f6ljt av industrisektorn (+4,4%). Fastighetssektorn utgjorde den st\u00f6rsta undervikten (-7,4%) f\u00f6ljt av informationsteknologi (-4,7%). P\u00e5 bolagsniv\u00e5 s\u00e5 utgjorde positionerna i Hexatronic (+4,9%), Orion Oyj (+3,1%) och Munters (+2,7%) de st\u00f6rsta relativa \u00f6vervikterna.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

De aktier som bidrog mest till fondens relativa utveckling under m\u00e5naden var innehaven i Hexatronic, Wallenius Wilhelmsen ASA och Bonesupport. De aktier som utvecklades s\u00e4mst under m\u00e5naden i relativa termer var Coor Service Management, OX2 och undervikten i Skanska.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Vi har under m\u00e5naden bland annat k\u00f6pt aktier i Securitas,  AFRY och danska NKT A\/S. Vi har under samma period reducerat v\u00e5ra innehav i Axfood, Bonheur ASA och s\u00e5lt ut innehavet i Addnode Group. Vi \u00e4r \u00f6verviktade inom sektorerna f\u00f6r finans och r\u00e5varor, d\u00e4r vi inom finanssektorn ser det stigande r\u00e4ntel\u00e4get som initialt positivt f\u00f6r banker och f\u00f6rs\u00e4kringsbolag. Vi \u00e4r underviktade inom sektorerna f\u00f6r l\u00e4kemedel och fastigheter d\u00e4r en tilltagande oro finns \u00f6ver det stigande r\u00e4ntel\u00e4get och dess p\u00e5verkan p\u00e5 fastighetssektorn. Vi \u00e4r \u201dstock pickers\u201d och har d\u00e4rmed ingen uttalad sektorallokering, men bolag inom samma sektorer har vanligtvis vissa gemensamma drag. I och med detta kan v\u00e5ra sektorvikter komma att p\u00e5verkas.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Alfred Berg Nordic Small Cap ESG<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Oktober var en m\u00e5nad pr\u00e4glad av fortsatt os\u00e4kerhet p\u00e5 de finansiella marknaderna, med stora r\u00e4nter\u00f6relser och volatila aktiemarknader. Men d\u00e4r september visade en nedg\u00e5ng p\u00e5 b\u00f6rserna hamnade de i allm\u00e4nhet i oktober.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":16,"featured_media":11927,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[65],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-7268","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-news-sv"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nM\u00e5nadsrapport oktober - Alfredberg<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/no.staging.alfredberg.com\/sv\/manadsrapport-oktober-2022-ekonomi-och-rantor-i-norden\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"sv_SE\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"M\u00e5nadsrapport oktober - Alfredberg\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Oktober var en m\u00e5nad pr\u00e4glad av fortsatt os\u00e4kerhet p\u00e5 de finansiella marknaderna, med stora r\u00e4nter\u00f6relser och volatila aktiemarknader. 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