{"id":7126,"date":"2022-10-12T12:00:20","date_gmt":"2022-10-12T10:00:20","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/no.staging.alfredberg.com\/?p=7126"},"modified":"2025-09-30T10:51:04","modified_gmt":"2025-09-30T08:51:04","slug":"manadsrapport-september-2022","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/no.staging.alfredberg.com\/sv\/manadsrapport-september-2022\/","title":{"rendered":"M\u00e5nadsrapport september 2022"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Ekonomi och R\u00e4ntor i Norden<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

September var en m\u00e5nad pr\u00e4glad av oroliga finansmarknader, volatila r\u00e4ntor, fortsatt h\u00f6g inflation och makroekonomisk os\u00e4kerhet.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

I Sverige h\u00f6jde Riksbanken styrr\u00e4ntan med hela 100 punkter till 1,75%. I Norge h\u00f6jde Norges Bank centralbanksr\u00e4ntan som v\u00e4ntat med 50 punkter, till 2,25 %.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

B\u00e5de de amerikanska och europeiska centralbankerna genomf\u00f6rde historiska r\u00e4nteh\u00f6jningar med 75 punkter till 3,25 % respektive 1,25 % i september.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ungef\u00e4r samtidigt som den brittiska centralbanken ocks\u00e5 h\u00f6jde r\u00e4ntorna med 50 punkter, aviserade den nyinsatta brittiska regeringen massiva skattes\u00e4nkningar under de kommande \u00e5ren. Avsikten \u00e4r att \u00f6ka den ekonomiska tillv\u00e4xten. De finansiella marknaderna var inte l\u00e5ngsamma i sin kritiska bed\u00f6mning av planen, och den brittiska valutan rasade och r\u00e4ntorna sk\u00f6t i h\u00f6jden. Centralbanken var allts\u00e5 tvungen att subventionera k\u00f6p av egna statsobligationer f\u00f6r att undvika en kollaps p\u00e5 finansmarknaderna. Det ironiska i detta kaos var att f\u00f6ljande m\u00e5ndag var den planerade starten p\u00e5 centralbankens kvantitativa \u00e5tstramning efter covid. Ist\u00e4llet blev det mer kvantitativa l\u00e4ttnader. Kanske \u00e4r det s\u00e5 h\u00e4r flera centralbankers \u00e5tstramningsplaner kommer att sluta.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Europeiska centralbanken befinner sig i en s\u00e4rskilt sv\u00e5r situation. viktiga delar av ekonomin befinner sig redan i ett l\u00e5gkonjunkturliknande tillst\u00e5nd, energikrisen \u00e4r egentligen bara det \u2013 en kris, och hush\u00e5llen upplever ett kraftigt minskande k\u00f6pkraft. Samtidigt stiger inflationen fortfarande. Vi undrar om r\u00e4nteh\u00f6jningarna kommer att bli lika m\u00e5nga och l\u00e5ngvariga som marknadspriserna f\u00f6r tillf\u00e4llet indikerar.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

I USA \u00e4r det fortfarande bra fart i ekonomin och centralbanken m\u00e5ste med r\u00e4tta forts\u00e4tta med r\u00e4nteh\u00f6jningar f\u00f6r att d\u00e4mpa den fortfarande starka efterfr\u00e5gan i ekonomin.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Kreditmarknaderna pr\u00e4glades av l\u00e5g likviditet och negativt sentiment i september. Kreditspreadarna har \u00f6kat p\u00e5 alla v\u00e5ra marknader. Vi har upplevt b\u00e4ttre likviditet p\u00e5 EUR-marknaden \u00e4n p\u00e5 de nordiska marknaderna. Kreditspreadarna har ocks\u00e5 h\u00e5llit sig n\u00e5got b\u00e4ttre i Norden.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Os\u00e4kerhet kring fastighetsv\u00e4rderingar och bolagens tillg\u00e5ng till kapital g\u00f6r att obligationer fr\u00e5n fastighetssektorn fortfarande \u00e4r illikvida och handlas till h\u00f6ga premier. De bolag vi har i portf\u00f6ljen har idag god likviditet och tillg\u00e5ng till alternativ finansiering. P\u00e5 l\u00e5ng sikt \u00e4r dock branschen beroende av en b\u00e4ttre kapitalmarknad f\u00f6r att deras aff\u00e4rsmodell ska h\u00e5lla.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Bortsett fr\u00e5n fastighetssektorn sektor \u00e4r \u00f6kande kreditspreadar ett brett fenomen och inte relaterad till n\u00e5gra specifika f\u00f6retag eller sektorer.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Amerikansk, svensk, norsk och tysk 10-\u00e5rig statlig r\u00e4nta, senaste 3 \u00e5r<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
Source: Alfred Berg\/ Bloomberg<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Utvecklingen av kreditriskpremier under de senaste 6 m\u00e5naderna, fr\u00e5n toppen; Sverige, USA, Europa och Norge<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
Source: Alfred Berg\/ Bloomberg<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

V\u00e5ra r\u00e4ntefonder<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Alfred Berg Income<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Alfred Berg Income hade en negativ utveckling under september. I allm\u00e4nhet sj\u00f6nk priserna (och r\u00e4ntorna steg) \u00f6ver hela marknaden. Det var hybridobligationer inom bank\/finans och fastigheter som \u00e5terigen presterade svagast n\u00e4r sentimentet f\u00f6rsvagades. Dessutom ser vi att mer likvida XO-obligationer handlas ner snabbare \u00e4n mindre likvida h\u00f6gavkastningsobligationer. Risken f\u00f6r recession p\u00e5verkar cykliska och utsatta sektorer. D\u00e4remot ser vi att h\u00f6ga energipriser g\u00f6r att p\u00e5verkan i energirelaterade f\u00f6retag \u00e4r mindre. Kreditriskpremier och r\u00e4ntor har nu stigit mycket och priserna diskonterar en hel del problem fram\u00e5t. Det g\u00f6r att b\u00e5de bra och mindre bra f\u00f6retag betalar en bra r\u00e4nta idag. D\u00e4rf\u00f6r ser vi stora m\u00f6jligheter p\u00e5 dagens marknad.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Alfred Berg Income A<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Alfred Berg Nordic High Yield<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Aktiviteten p\u00e5 emissionsmarknaden har varit ganska l\u00e5g hittills i \u00e5r, med ett antal emittenter som avvaktar det p\u00e5g\u00e5ende l\u00e4get och prisos\u00e4kerhet. Hittills i \u00e5r \u00e4r volymen cirka 60 miljarder SEK. Under 2021 som helhet gavs l\u00e5n ut f\u00f6r n\u00e4rmare 200 miljarder svenska kronor, upp fr\u00e5n 90 miljarder svenska kronor \u00e5ret innan. I augusti emitterades tolv obligationer med en total volym p\u00e5 cirka 8,8 miljarder SEK, varav 3,3 miljarder emitterades av bemanningsf\u00f6retaget Nes Fircroft. Vi tror att det kan finnas en n\u00e5got \u00e5terh\u00e5llsam utbudssida av nya obligationer. Fram\u00f6ver f\u00f6rv\u00e4ntar vi oss fortfarande h\u00f6g volatilitet och os\u00e4kerhet med tanke p\u00e5 det ol\u00f6sta och p\u00e5g\u00e5ende kriget i Ukraina, s\u00e5v\u00e4l som den verkliga grundl\u00e4ggande effekt som coronaviruset har haft p\u00e5 den globala ekonomin. H\u00f6jda r\u00e4ntor och inflation kan utg\u00f6ra ett hot p\u00e5 l\u00e4ngre sikt. Men det senare avspeglas relativt v\u00e4l p\u00e5 dagens marknad. Dessutom \u00e4r den st\u00f6rsta andelen av obligationen p\u00e5 den nordiska h\u00f6gr\u00e4ntemarknaden med r\u00f6rlig r\u00e4nta, vilket ger skydd mot den direkta effekten av h\u00f6gre marknadsr\u00e4ntor. Vi tror att dagens volatila marknad skapar m\u00f6jligheter f\u00f6r den l\u00e5ngsiktiga investeraren. Emissionsmarknaden f\u00f6rv\u00e4ntas vara mer “off and on” under de kommande m\u00e5naderna.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Alfred Berg Nordic High Yield ACC<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Alfred Berg Nordic High Yield ESG<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Den nordiska aktiemarknaden i<\/strong> september<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Det var fortsatt en svag b\u00f6rs globalt  i september och Norden var inget undantag. Internationellt \u00e4r det en kombination av en f\u00f6rsvagad fastighetssektor i Kina, r\u00e4nteh\u00f6jningar i st\u00f6rre delen av v\u00e4stv\u00e4rlden, fortfarande pandemirelaterade st\u00f6rningar p\u00e5 utbudssidan och Rysslands invasion av Ukraina som pr\u00e4glar nyhetsbilden. De goda nyheterna; ledande makroindikatorer h\u00e5ller sig fortfarande hyfsat bra och det \u00e4r sv\u00e5rt att f\u00f6rest\u00e4lla sig att centralbankerna kommer att h\u00f6ja r\u00e4ntorna mer \u00e4n vad ekonomierna orkar.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Vi n\u00e4rmar oss rapports\u00e4songen f\u00f6r tredje kvartalet. Baserat p\u00e5 hur 2022 har varit hittills kommer detta att bli ett v\u00e4ldigt intressant kvartal. V\u00e4rt att notera \u00e4r att estimaten har h\u00e5llit sig v\u00e4l, b\u00e5de f\u00f6r S&P 500 och det nordiska indexet. Bolagens resultat, internationellt och i Norden, ser fortfarande ut att \u00f6ka under 2022.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

B\u00e4sta sektorn p\u00e5 den nordiska b\u00f6rserna i september var finans, f\u00f6ljt av h\u00e4lsosektorn. I den motsatta \u00e4nden f\u00f6ll fastigheter med 9 % och placerade sig i botten sektorm\u00e4ssigt, f\u00f6ljt av industrisektorn.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Alfred Berg Nordic Index<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

V\u00e5ra aktiva aktiefonder<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Alfred Berg Nordic Gambaks<\/strong> viktigaste positiva bidragsgivare var finans och h\u00e4lsosektorn. I negativ riktning var det en sektor som framf\u00f6r allt andra bidrog negativt, och det var konsumentvaror och mer specifikt sj\u00f6mat. F\u00f6rslaget om nya skatter f\u00f6r sj\u00f6matsbolag fick sektorn att sjunka kraftigt. \u00c4ven om fonden hade minskat sin sektorsexponering n\u00e5got under september, bidrog sj\u00f6matsaktier med ca. 1,9 % i negativt avkastningsbidrag. Det \u00e5terst\u00e5r att se i vilken utstr\u00e4ckning f\u00f6rslaget g\u00e5r igenom politisk behandling. Active share \u00e4r 71.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Fonden har en \u00f6vervikt inom energi och material. Fonden \u00e4r underviktad de flesta andra sektorer, s\u00e4rskilt industri och IT. I slutet av m\u00e5naden var fondens st\u00f6rsta positioner Novo Nordisk (8,6 %), Equinor (8,0 %) och Sampo (3,8 %). Aktier som bidrog mest i positiv riktning var Jyske Bank som steg 14,3% (0,4% p\u00e5 portf\u00f6ljniv\u00e5), Hexatronic som steg 6,1% (0,2%) och Betsson som steg 5,4% genom m\u00e5naden (0,1%). Salmar, som f\u00f6ll 44,3% (-1,4% p\u00e5 portf\u00f6ljbasis), Grieg Seafood, som f\u00f6ll 39,1% (-0,5%) och Axfood, som f\u00f6ll 15,5%, (-0,1). Under m\u00e5naden har vi ut\u00f6kat positionerna inom bl.a. UPM Kymmene, Nibe Industrier och Genmab. Vi har minskat innehaven i Wallenius Wilhelmsen, Salmar och Bakkafrost. N\u00e5gra nyckeltal f\u00f6r portf\u00f6ljen \u00e4r att den sammanlagda (f\u00f6rv\u00e4ntade kommande 12 m\u00e5naderna) P\/E \u00e4r 11,2 vs. 15,3 f\u00f6r index. Under de senaste tre m\u00e5naderna har konsensus-EBIT f\u00f6r de kommande 12 m\u00e5naderna \u00f6kat med 13% f\u00f6r portf\u00f6ljbolagen och -4% f\u00f6r index som helhet.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Alfred Berg Nordic Gambak<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Alfred Berg Nordic Small Cap ESG<\/strong> minskade med 11,0% under m\u00e5naden medan fondens j\u00e4mf\u00f6relseindex, Carnegie Nordic Small Cap, minskade med 12,1%. P\u00e5 sektorniv\u00e5 s\u00e5 var vid m\u00e5nadens slut sektorn f\u00f6r r\u00e5varor den st\u00f6rsta \u00f6vervikten (+6,0%) f\u00f6ljt av finansiella bolag (+5,7%). Fastighetssektorn utgjorde den st\u00f6rsta undervikten (-8,0%) f\u00f6ljt av sektorn f\u00f6r kommunikationstj\u00e4nster (-3,1%). P\u00e5 bolagsniv\u00e5 s\u00e5 utgjorde positionerna i Hexatronic Group AB (+3,7%), Orion Oyj (+3,3%) och Elkem ASA (+2,8%) de st\u00f6rsta \u00f6vervikterna.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

De aktier som bidrog mest till fondens relativa utveckling under m\u00e5naden var innehaven i Jyske Bank A\/S, Hexatronic Group AB och innehavet i Bonesupport AB. De aktier som utvecklades s\u00e4mst under m\u00e5naden i relativa termer var Grieg Seafood ASA, undervikten i BioArctic AB och Bonheur ASA.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Vi har under m\u00e5naden bland annat k\u00f6pt aktier i Protector ASA, Securitas AB och Cloudberry Clean Energy ASA. Vi har under samma period reducerat v\u00e5ra innehav i Axfood AB och s\u00e5lt ut innehaven i Outokumpu Oyj och Dometic AB. Vi \u00e4r \u00f6verviktade inom sektorerna f\u00f6r finans och r\u00e5varor, d\u00e4r vi inom finanssektorn ser det stigande r\u00e4ntel\u00e4get som initialt positivt f\u00f6r banker och f\u00f6rs\u00e4kringsbolag. Vi \u00e4r underviktade inom sektorerna f\u00f6r l\u00e4kemedel och fastigheter d\u00e4r en tilltagande oro finns \u00f6ver det stigande r\u00e4ntel\u00e4get och dess p\u00e5verkan p\u00e5 fastighetssektorn. Vi \u00e4r \u201dstock pickers\u201d och har d\u00e4rmed ingen uttalad sektorallokering, men bolag inom samma sektorer har vanligtvis vissa gemensamma drag. I och med detta kan v\u00e5ra sektorvikter komma att p\u00e5verkas.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Alfred Berg Nordic Small Cap ESG<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

September var en m\u00e5nad pr\u00e4glad av oroliga finansmarknader, volatila r\u00e4ntor, fortsatt h\u00f6g inflation och makroekonomisk os\u00e4kerhet. 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