{"id":7019,"date":"2022-09-14T13:13:16","date_gmt":"2022-09-14T11:13:16","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/no.staging.alfredberg.com\/?p=7019"},"modified":"2024-02-21T13:12:21","modified_gmt":"2024-02-21T12:12:21","slug":"manadsrapport-augusti-2022","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/no.staging.alfredberg.com\/sv\/manadsrapport-augusti-2022\/","title":{"rendered":"M\u00e5nadsrapport augusti 2022"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Ekonomi och R\u00e4ntor i Norden<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Efter en bra m\u00e5nad i juli med fallande r\u00e4ntor och b\u00e4ttre kreditmarknader var det i augusti \u00e5terigen negativt. De l\u00e5nga r\u00e4ntorna steg markant och f\u00f6rv\u00e4ntningarna om h\u00f6jda centralbanksr\u00e4ntor justerades upp. Bakgrunden \u00e4r fortfarande inflationssiffror som har fastnat p\u00e5 mycket h\u00f6ga niv\u00e5er och som f\u00f6r n\u00e4rvarande inte visar n\u00e5gra tecken p\u00e5 att avta. Centralbankernas fr\u00e4msta oro \u00e4r de mycket strama arbetsmarknader som vi ser i Norden, Europa och USA. R\u00e4dslan \u00e4r att detta leder till framtida l\u00f6ne\u00f6kningar, vilket i sin tur leder till permanent h\u00f6gre inflationsf\u00f6rv\u00e4ntningar. Det som g\u00f6r situationen extra utmanande nu \u00e4r att tillv\u00e4xtutsikterna i v\u00e4rlden ser klart svagare ut. Sannolikheten f\u00f6r en stark motreaktion \u00e4r stor. N\u00e5gon g\u00e5ng f\u00e5r man r\u00e4kna med att \u00e4ven centralbankerna v\u00e4ger in detta i sina bed\u00f6mningar. P\u00e5 kort sikt r\u00e5der det dock ingen tvekan om att r\u00e4ntorna kommer att stiga rej\u00e4lt fr\u00e5n nuvarande niv\u00e5er. Marknadsr\u00f6relserna den senaste m\u00e5naden \u00e4r till stor del en funktion av mycket \u00a8h\u00f6kiska\u00a8 kommentarer fr\u00e5n Riksbanken, Norges Bank, FED i USA, ECB i Europa, BOE i England etc. Norges Bank h\u00f6jde stuyrr\u00e4ntan med 0,5 % i augusti. Andra centralbanker var fortfarande i semesterl\u00e4ge.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

I Europa steg de l\u00e5nga r\u00e4ntorna (10 \u00e5r) med mer \u00e4n 0,7 % till 1,5 %, i USA fr\u00e5n 2,6 % till 3,2 %, i Norge upp fr\u00e5n 2,8 % till 3,4 % och i Sverige fr\u00e5n 1,3 % till 1,9 %.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Amerikansk, svensk, norsk och tysk 10-\u00e5rig statlig r\u00e4nta, senaste 3 \u00e5r<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
Source: Alfred Berg\/ Bloomberg<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Kreditmarknaderna var gynsamma i b\u00f6rjan av augusti med stadigt fallande kreditspreadar. I Europa \u00f6kade p\u00e5slaget i augusti, efter en god start, med cirka 10 bps. Det underliggande sentimentet p\u00e5 marknaden pr\u00e4glas av os\u00e4kerhet. Denna os\u00e4kerhet f\u00f6rv\u00e4ntas best\u00e5 under h\u00f6sten.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Utvecklingen av kreditspreadar f\u00f6r Sverige, Norge, Europa och USA de senaste 5 \u00e5ren<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
Source: Alfred Berg\/ Bloomberg<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

V\u00e5ra r\u00e4ntefonder<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Alfred Berg Income<\/strong> hade en bra m\u00e5nad. En stor del av “XO” (cross-over) obligationer gick bra, till exempel bolag som Seaspan, Wallenius Wilhelmsen, Intrum och hybridobligationer inom fastigheter. Vi f\u00f6rv\u00e4ntar oss att en \u00f6kad risk f\u00f6r recession kommer att leda till fortsatt h\u00f6g volatilitet fram\u00f6ver. D\u00e4remot har r\u00e4ntor och kreditspreadar redan stigit en hel del och d\u00e4rf\u00f6r ser vi allt mer intressanta m\u00f6jligheter p\u00e5 marknaden.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Alfred Berg Income A<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Alfred Berg Nordic High Yield <\/strong>hade en positiv m\u00e5nad under augusti.Aktiviteten p\u00e5 emissionsmarknaden har varit ganska l\u00e5g hittills i \u00e5r, med ett antal emittenter som avvaktar det p\u00e5g\u00e5ende l\u00e4get och prisos\u00e4kerhet. Hittills i \u00e5r \u00e4r volymen cirka 55 miljarder SEK. Under 2021 som helhet gavs l\u00e5n ut f\u00f6r n\u00e4rmare 200 miljarder SEK, upp fr\u00e5n 90 miljarder SEK \u00e5ret innan. I augusti emitterades tre obligationer med en total volym p\u00e5 cirka 3,7 miljarder SEK. Vi tror att det kan finnas en n\u00e5got \u00e5terh\u00e5llsam utbudssida av nya obligationer. Fram\u00f6ver f\u00f6rv\u00e4ntar vi oss fortfarande h\u00f6g volatilitet och os\u00e4kerhet med tanke p\u00e5 det ol\u00f6sta och p\u00e5g\u00e5ende kriget i Ukraina, s\u00e5v\u00e4l som den verkliga grundl\u00e4ggande effekt som coronaviruset har haft p\u00e5 den globala ekonomin. H\u00f6jda r\u00e4ntor och inflation kan utg\u00f6ra ett hot p\u00e5 l\u00e4ngre sikt. Men det senare avspeglas relativt v\u00e4l p\u00e5 dagens marknad. Dessutom \u00e4r den st\u00f6rsta andelen av obligationen p\u00e5 den nordiska h\u00f6gr\u00e4ntemarknaden med r\u00f6rlig r\u00e4nta, vilket ger skydd mot den direkta effekten av h\u00f6gre marknadsr\u00e4ntor. Vi tror att dagens volatila marknad skapar m\u00f6jligheter f\u00f6r den l\u00e5ngsiktiga investeraren. Emissionsmarknaden f\u00f6rv\u00e4ntas vara mer “off and on” under de kommande m\u00e5naderna.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Alfred Berg Nordic High Yield ACC<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Alfred Berg Nordic High Yield ESG<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Den nordiska aktiemarknaden i augusti<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Uppg\u00e5ngen fr\u00e5n juli h\u00f6ll inte i sig under augusti. Det var en nedg\u00e5ng p\u00e5 de flesta internationella b\u00f6rser, inklusive Norden.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Det finns mycket att oroa sig f\u00f6r, och mycket att vara glad \u00f6ver, p\u00e5 dagens marknad. Man kan oroa sig f\u00f6r energipriserna, framf\u00f6r allt gas och d\u00e4rmed \u00e4ven elpriserna, som \u00e4r ovanligt h\u00f6ga i ett historiskt sammanhang. Detta har, och kommer att f\u00e5, konsekvenser f\u00f6r bl.a. konsumtionsm\u00f6nstret. Centralbanker verkar ocks\u00e5 visa en vilja att anv\u00e4nda r\u00e4ntevapnet i kampen mot inflationen, efter att under en period ha karakteriserat inflationen som tillf\u00e4llig.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

De goda nyheterna; Sammantaget var rapporteringss\u00e4songen p\u00e5 de nordiska b\u00f6rserna bra, f\u00f6rv\u00e4ntningarna \u00f6vertr\u00e4ffades och Norden \u00e4r p\u00e5 v\u00e4g att tj\u00e4na mer pengar i \u00e5r \u00e4n f\u00f6rra \u00e5ret. Energisektorn leder v\u00e4gen, men \u00e4r inte p\u00e5 n\u00e5got s\u00e4tt ensam. Men man m\u00e5ste vara realistisk, om nuvarande elpriser kvarst\u00e5r under hela \u00e5ret kommer det att f\u00e5 konsekvenser f\u00f6r konjunkturcyklerna i Europa. De nordiska l\u00e4nderna kommer inte att vara op\u00e5verkade av detta.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Den b\u00e4sta sektorn p\u00e5 nordiska b\u00f6rser i augusti var energi, f\u00f6ljt av materialsektorn. F\u00f6rra m\u00e5nadens vinnande sektor, fastigheter f\u00f6ll med 9 % och placerade sig i botten sektorm\u00e4ssigt, f\u00f6ljt av industrisektorn.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

V\u00e5ra aktiva aktiefonder<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

De viktigaste positiva bidragsgivarna f\u00f6r Alfred Berg Nordic Gambak<\/strong> under m\u00e5naden var energi- och finanssektorerna. Materialsektorn och konsumtionen drog i negativ riktning, med skaldjursaktier som hade en svag m\u00e5nad.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Active share \u00e4r 75.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Fonden har en \u00f6vervikt inom energi och material. Fonden \u00e4r underviktad i de flesta andra sektorerna, framf\u00f6r allt kommunikationstj\u00e4nster och IT. I slutet av m\u00e5naden var fondens st\u00f6rsta positioner Novo Nordisk (8,4 %), Equinor (8,2 %) och Sampo (3,6 %).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Aktier som bidrog mest i positiv riktning var Aker Solutions som steg 30,3 % (0,8 % p\u00e5 portf\u00f6ljniv\u00e5), TopDanmark som steg 10,8 % (0,3 %) och New Wave Group som steg 9,0 % under m\u00e5naden (0,3 %). ). I negativ riktning drog TopDanmark, som f\u00f6ll 8,3 % (-0,4 % p\u00e5 portf\u00f6ljbasis), Huhtamaki som f\u00f6ll 4,3 % (- 0,1 %) och Nordea som steg 9,2 % men d\u00e4r fonden var underviktad.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Under m\u00e5naden har vi ut\u00f6kat tj\u00e4nsterna inom bl.a. ISS, Tryg och Hexpol. Vi har minskat v\u00e5r exponering mot V\u00e5r Energi, Aker BP och Maersk.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

N\u00e5gra nyckeltal f\u00f6r portf\u00f6ljen \u00e4r att den sammanlagda (f\u00f6rv\u00e4ntade kommande 12 m\u00e5naderna) P\/E \u00e4r 10,4 vs. 13,6 f\u00f6r index. Under de senaste tre m\u00e5naderna har konsensusvinsten per aktie f\u00f6r innevarande r\u00e4kenskaps\u00e5r \u00f6kat med 18,4% f\u00f6r portf\u00f6ljbolagen och -8% f\u00f6r indexet som helhet.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Alfred Berg Nordic Gambak<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Alfred Berg Nordic Small Cap ESG<\/strong> minskade med 6,6% under m\u00e5naden medan fondens j\u00e4mf\u00f6relseindex, Carnegie Nordic Small Cap, minskade med 5,9%. P\u00e5 sektorniv\u00e5 s\u00e5 var vid m\u00e5nadens slut r\u00e5varor den st\u00f6rsta \u00f6vervikten (+6,9%) f\u00f6ljt av finansiella bolag (+4,9%). Fastighetssektorn utgjorde den st\u00f6rsta undervikten (-8,4%) f\u00f6ljt av sektorn f\u00f6r kommunikationstj\u00e4nster (-3,0%). P\u00e5 bolagsniv\u00e5 s\u00e5 utgjorde positionerna i Hexatronic Group AB (+3,7%), Orion Oyj (+3,0%) och Elkem ASA (+2,9%) de st\u00f6rsta \u00f6vervikterna.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

De aktier som bidrog mest till fondens relativa utveckling under m\u00e5naden var innehaven i Elkem ASA, Bonesupport AB och innehavet i Jyske Bank A\/S. De aktier som utvecklades s\u00e4mst under m\u00e5naden i relativa termer var Isofol Medical AB, Hexatronic Group AB och Marimekko Oyj.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Vi har under m\u00e5naden bland annat k\u00f6pt aktier i Munters AB, Loomis AB och Tieto Oyj. Vi har under samma period reducerat v\u00e5ra innehav i Vitec Software AB, Wallenius Wilhemsen ASA och Borregaard ASA och s\u00e5lt ut innehaven i Isofol Medical AB och QT Group Oyj. Undervikter inom sektorer s\u00e5som s\u00e4llank\u00f6psvaror, finansiella bolag samt industriella bolag, som kom att p\u00e5verkas kraftigt av nedst\u00e4ngningar och minskad efterfr\u00e5gan under pandemin, har v\u00e4nts till \u00f6vervikter alternativt reducerats (s\u00e4llank\u00f6psvaror och industriella bolag). Vi \u00e4r underviktade inom sektorerna f\u00f6r l\u00e4kemedel och fastigheter och \u00f6verviktade inom sektorerna f\u00f6r finans och r\u00e5varor. Vi \u00e4r \u201dstock pickers\u201d och har d\u00e4rmed ingen uttalad sektorallokering, men bolag inom samma sektorer har vanligtvis vissa gemensamma drag. I och med detta kan v\u00e5ra sektorvikter komma att p\u00e5verkas.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Alfred Berg Nordic Small Cap ESG<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Efter en bra m\u00e5nad i juli med fallande r\u00e4ntor och b\u00e4ttre kreditmarknader var det i augusti \u00e5terigen negativt. De l\u00e5nga r\u00e4ntorna steg markant och f\u00f6rv\u00e4ntningarna om h\u00f6jda centralbanksr\u00e4ntor justerades upp.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":16,"featured_media":11899,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[66,65],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-7019","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-article-sv","category-news-sv"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nM\u00e5nadsrapport augusti 2022 - Alfredberg<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/no.staging.alfredberg.com\/sv\/manadsrapport-augusti-2022\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"sv_SE\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"M\u00e5nadsrapport augusti 2022 - Alfredberg\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Efter en bra m\u00e5nad i juli med fallande r\u00e4ntor och b\u00e4ttre kreditmarknader var det i augusti \u00e5terigen negativt. 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