{"id":5390,"date":"2022-01-28T11:15:00","date_gmt":"2022-01-28T10:15:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/no.staging.alfredberg.com\/?p=5390"},"modified":"2025-09-30T10:22:53","modified_gmt":"2025-09-30T08:22:53","slug":"smalare-vag-framat","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/no.staging.alfredberg.com\/sv\/smalare-vag-framat\/","title":{"rendered":"Smalare v\u00e4g fram\u00e5t"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

P\u00e5 v\u00e4g in i 2022 st\u00e5r r\u00e4ntemarknaden inf\u00f6r en paradox. Inflationen \u00e4r h\u00f6g och r\u00e4ntorna l\u00e5ga. En av parametrarna b\u00f6r justeras. Vi tror att avkastningen p\u00e5 r\u00e4ntefonder i \u00e5r kan bli h\u00f6gre \u00e4n 2021, eftersom r\u00e4ntorna \u00e4r p\u00e5 uppg\u00e5ng. F\u00f6r investerare som dr\u00f6mmer om aktieliknande avkastning p\u00e5 r\u00e4ntemarknaden… ja, det finns fortfarande m\u00f6jligheter.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

2021 var ett \u00e5r av \u00e5terh\u00e4mtning. Paradoxalt nog ligger de verkliga ekonomiska effekterna av Covid 19 bakom oss. Bruttonationalprodukten (BNP) f\u00f6r v\u00e4rlden \u00e4r 2,1 % under niv\u00e5n f\u00f6re Covid. De nordiska l\u00e4nderna sticker ut genom att ligga i topp p\u00e5 listan. H\u00e4r \u00e4r BNP n\u00e4stan tillbaka p\u00e5 samma niv\u00e5 som innan covid och l\u00e5ngt f\u00f6re niv\u00e5n i EU. Solida sociala system, politisk stabilitet och god tillv\u00e4xt har gett de nordiska l\u00e4nderna en f\u00f6rdel i \u00e5terh\u00e4mtningen.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

2022 har startat med industriproduktion p\u00e5 rekordniv\u00e5er i v\u00e4rlden. Global handel och detaljhandelsf\u00f6rs\u00e4ljning \u00e4r 6,5 % respektive 4,9 % h\u00f6gre \u00e4n vid utg\u00e5ngen av 2019. Tj\u00e4nstebranschen forts\u00e4tter att brottas med l\u00e5g efterfr\u00e5gan s\u00e5 l\u00e4nge efterfr\u00e5gan finns fr\u00e4mst inom varor och inte resor och restaurangbes\u00f6k.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Inflationen var p\u00e5 allas l\u00e4ppar under 2021. Till en b\u00f6rjan som ett \u00f6verg\u00e5ende fenomen men mot slutet av \u00e5ret blev allt fler \u00f6vertygade om att inflationen inte \u00e4r tillf\u00e4llig. Detta g\u00e4ller prim\u00e4rt USA med en inflation p\u00e5 7%. Det har g\u00e5tt 30-40 \u00e5r sedan vi senast s\u00e5g dessa niv\u00e5er. I Norden och Europa ligger inflationen fortfarande inom mer normala niv\u00e5er.<\/p>\n\n\n

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R\u00f6relser i r\u00e4ntorna – lugna kreditspreadar<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

I Norden, Europa och USA var de korta r\u00e4ntorna i stort sett of\u00f6r\u00e4ndrade under 2021. Men Norges Bank stack ut markant och h\u00f6jde r\u00e4ntorna under hela \u00e5ret, trots l\u00e5ga inflationssiffror. Detta resulterade i en f\u00f6rdubbling p\u00e5 3 m\u00e5nader. NIBOR fr\u00e5n ca. 0,5 % till ca. 1 %. De l\u00e5nga r\u00e4ntorna steg markant. I Norge n\u00e4stan f\u00f6rdubblades den 5-\u00e5riga swappr\u00e4ntan d\u00e5 den steg fr\u00e5n 1% till 1,9%. I USA steg 5-\u00e5riga swappr\u00e4ntor fr\u00e5n 0,4 % till 1,4 %. Inflation och “tapering” \u00e4r nyckelorden.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Covid-mutationer h\u00f6ll centralbankerna i krisl\u00e4ge. Detta, i kombination med ekonomisk tillv\u00e4xt efter Covid, lungnade r\u00f6relserna i kreditspreadarna under hela \u00e5ret. I b\u00f6rjan av \u00e5ret sj\u00f6nk kreditspreadarna n\u00e5got f\u00f6r att sedan vara of\u00f6r\u00e4ndrade fr\u00e5n mars till oktober. I oktober gick de is\u00e4r och fastigheter drabbades h\u00e5rdast. Nordiska kreditspreadar var mer stabila \u00e4n internationella under 2021. Inom high yield-segmentet sj\u00f6nk de nordiska kreditspreadarna fr\u00e5n cirka 7 % till cirka 6 %.<\/p>\n\n\n

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Investment grade – r\u00e4nter\u00f6relserna f\u00f6rklarar avkastningen <\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Starten p\u00e5 2021, med “all time low” i r\u00e4ntor, kreditspreadar p\u00e5 l\u00e5ga niv\u00e5er och utsikter att byta kurs g\u00e4llande centralbankernas mycket expansiva penningpolitik, var vi m\u00e5ttligt optimistiska om den f\u00f6rv\u00e4ntade avkastningen. I f\u00f6reg\u00e5ende \u00e5rs sammanst\u00e4llning skrev vi att sannolikheten f\u00f6r en negativ avkastning var h\u00f6g.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Fonder med kort r\u00e4ntebindning gav h\u00f6gst avkastning medan fonder med l\u00e5ng r\u00e4nta gav l\u00e4gst avkastning. 2021 var \u00e5ret d\u00e5 r\u00e4nteniv\u00e5n drev avkastningen p\u00e5 obligationsfonderna. Nordic investment grade r\u00e4ntefonder levererade h\u00f6gre avkastning \u00e4n norska fonder.<\/p>\n\n\n

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Avkastningen p\u00e5 v\u00e5ra nordiska investment grade-fonder varierade fr\u00e5n +1,6 % till -2,2 % i NOK. B\u00e4st var Alfred Berg Nordic Investment Grade (ca 0,8 \u00e5rs r\u00e4ntaduration) med 1,6%. Alfred Berg Nordic Investment Grade Mid Duration (ca 3 \u00e5rs r\u00e4nteduration) slutade p\u00e5 andra plats med 0,45 % i avkastning.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Attributionsanalysen visar att de st\u00f6rsta positiva bidragen i Alfred Berg Nordic Investment Grade Mid Duration kom fr\u00e5n kreditelementet och nuvarande r\u00e4ntor med 1,2 % respektive 1,0 %-enheter. Bara r\u00e4nteuppg\u00e5ngen bidrog till en kursf\u00f6rlust p\u00e5 1,8%. 2021 var det r\u00e4ntan som f\u00f6rklarade de flesta r\u00f6relserna i alla v\u00e5ra nordiska investmentgrade fonder.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Vinnaren som gav 7,9% avkastning under “kris\u00e5ret” 2020 blev f\u00f6rloraren 2021. N\u00e4r r\u00e4ntorna stiger kraftigt tappar man i l\u00e4ngden. Men trots att norska l\u00e5nga r\u00e4ntor n\u00e4stan f\u00f6rdubblades sj\u00f6nk Alfred Berg Nordic Investment Grade Long Duration (7-\u00e5rig NOK-r\u00e4nta) bara med 2,2 %, vilket var mycket mindre \u00e4n globala fonder med l\u00e5nga r\u00e4ntor. L\u00e5ng duration \u00e4r mindre “farligt” \u00e4n du kanske tror. Syftet med att ha en l\u00e5ng r\u00e4nteduration \u00e4r att ha en s\u00e4kring mot marknadsfall, som 2020. Men, vi upprepar det tr\u00e5kiga, f\u00f6r att s\u00e4kringen ska fungera m\u00e5ste den ligga p\u00e5 en r\u00e4ntekurva som kan falla. R\u00e4ntemarknader med noll eller negativ r\u00e4nta har spelat sin roll som s\u00e4kringar och som bra investeringar.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Sp\u00e4nnande \u00e5r inom high yield <\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Nordiska high yield obligationer var den klara vinnaren bland r\u00e4nteb\u00e4rande tillg\u00e5ngsklasser 2021. De flesta nordiska high yield fonder levererade mellan 8 % och 11 % avkastning, medan indexet NBP Norwegian High Yield Aggregated Index NOK Hedged slutade p\u00e5 9,2 % . Alfred Berg Nordic High Yield (C) levererade 15,7 % i NOK 2021. Under de senaste 5 \u00e5ren har den \u00e5rliga avkastningen varit 7,0 % i NOK. H\u00f6ga l\u00f6pande r\u00e4ntor i kombination med kreditspreadint\u00e4kter gav en mycket god avkastning. I en stadigt stigande marknad, praktiskt taget utan volatilitet, var den riskjusterade avkastningen mycket god.<\/p>\n\n\n

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Marknaden pr\u00e4glades av h\u00f6g aktivitet och rekordstora emissioner. \u00c5r 2021 emitterades nordiska h\u00f6gavkastningsobligationer f\u00f6r n\u00e4rmare 200 miljarder NOK. Emissionerna kom inom alla sektorer och marknaden erbjuder nu b\u00e4ttre m\u00f6jligheter till diversifiering \u00e4n n\u00e5gonsin tidigare. Norska investerare har visat stort intresse f\u00f6r nordiska h\u00f6gavkastande fonder. I Alfred Berg Nordic High Yield mer \u00e4n f\u00f6rdubblade vi de totala tillg\u00e5ngarna under 2021.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Alfred Berg Nordic High Yield (C) var den fond som levererade h\u00f6gst avkastning bland nordiska high yield-fonder (kategoriserade i VFF) 2021. \u00d6veravkastningen p\u00e5 mer \u00e4n 6 procentenheter beror p\u00e5 aktiv f\u00f6rvaltning. En marknad med ett stort antal emittenter och stora kursr\u00f6relser och prisskillnader mellan emittenter, sektorer och l\u00e4nder ger goda m\u00f6jligheter att skapa meravkastning.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Gr\u00f6nt tema f\u00f6r 2022<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Gr\u00f6na och h\u00e5llbara obligationer – stark tillv\u00e4xt<\/strong>
Andelen gr\u00f6na obligationer steg kraftigt under 2021. Ett antal v\u00e4letablerade nordiska emittenter gav ut obligationer i marknaden f\u00f6r att finansiera \u00e5tg\u00e4rder med milj\u00f6- eller klimatm\u00e5l. M\u00e5nga av dessa beh\u00f6ver omorganisera sin verksamhet f\u00f6r att m\u00f6ta framtida milj\u00f6- eller klimatkrav. Det kr\u00e4ver mycket kapital. De emitterade obligationerna klassificeras enligt de globala ICMA-principerna. Det \u00e4r inte de vi ser p\u00e5 Euronext Growth-listan obligationer fr\u00e5n nystartade “gr\u00f6na” bolag som vi hittar h\u00e4r hemma i norden.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

I Norden emitterades gr\u00f6na och h\u00e5llbara obligationer f\u00f6r 400 miljarder SEK, en \u00f6kning med 63 % fr\u00e5n 2020. P\u00e5 global basis var siffran n\u00e4stan 9 000 miljarder SEK. Allt tyder p\u00e5 att tillv\u00e4xttakten kommer att \u00f6ka. En analys fr\u00e5n DNB Markets visar att i Norge st\u00e5r andelen gr\u00f6na och h\u00e5llbarhetsobligationer nu f\u00f6r 20 % av alla obligationer emitterade 2021. I Sverige var siffran 18 % och i Norden 16 %. De st\u00f6rsta emittenterna av gr\u00f6na obligationer \u00e4r stat, finans, fastigheter och infrastruktur (energi). Vi tror att denna typ av obligationer i framtiden kommer att utg\u00f6ra en allt st\u00f6rre andel av obligationsfonderna.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

I slutet av 2021 hade Alfred Berg ca. 24 % exponering mot gr\u00f6na obligationer i de nordiska investment grade-fonderna. V\u00e5rt m\u00e5l \u00e4r att 50 % av v\u00e5ra nordiska investment grade-portf\u00f6ljer ska vara i gr\u00f6na obligationer i slutet av 2023. Detta ut\u00f6ver v\u00e5ra \u00f6vriga ESG-krav.<\/p>\n\n\n

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Prisskillnader – gr\u00f6n j\u00e4mf\u00f6rt med “icke-gr\u00f6n”<\/strong>
Mycket tyder p\u00e5 att prisskillnaden mellan gr\u00f6na och “icke-gr\u00f6na” obligationer kommer att \u00f6ka. Som det \u00e4r nu \u00e4r kreditspreadarna relativt lika. Detta g\u00e4ller s\u00e4rskilt i investment grade d\u00e4r spreadarna \u00e4r tunna – det finns lite att ge. Det inneb\u00e4r att investeraren inte beh\u00f6ver g\u00f6ra avkall p\u00e5 den l\u00f6pande avkastningen f\u00f6r att investera i gr\u00f6na obligationer. Om v\u00e5ra f\u00f6ruts\u00e4gelser om att prisskillnaden kommer att \u00f6ka st\u00e4mmer kommer investerare att kunna dra nytta av det.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Vi ser att intresset f\u00f6r emissionsmarknaden \u00e4r h\u00f6gre f\u00f6r gr\u00f6na \u00e4n f\u00f6r “icke-gr\u00f6na” obligationer. Dessutom \u00e4r likviditeten p\u00e5 andrahandsmarknaden b\u00e4ttre i gr\u00f6na obligationer. P\u00e5 oroliga marknader kommer gr\u00f6na obligationer att handlas betydligt b\u00e4ttre \u00e4n andra obligationer. Dessutom minskar risken f\u00f6r “stranded assets”, det vill s\u00e4ga obligationerna finansierar tillg\u00e5ngar som tappar i v\u00e4rde med nya milj\u00f6krav.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Att investera i gr\u00f6na obligationer \u00e4r r\u00e4tt ur ett ekonomiskt perspektiv. Det \u00e4r goda nyheter f\u00f6r investerare som vill ha en b\u00e4ttre riskjusterad avkastning och som vill bidra till att n\u00e5 klimat- och milj\u00f6m\u00e5l. Ja tack till b\u00e4gge delar.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Utsikter f\u00f6r 2022 – \u00e5tstramningar fram\u00e5t<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

R\u00e4ntor – inte f\u00f6r mycket av det goda <\/strong>
Tillv\u00e4xtprognoserna f\u00f6r 2022 \u00e4r goda. Siffrorna f\u00f6r handel, industriproduktion och detaljhandel \u00e4r starka. Tillv\u00e4xten \u00e4r fortfarande br\u00e4cklig och h\u00e5lls tillbaka av kapacitetsproblem. Problem med r\u00e5varuf\u00f6rs\u00f6rjningen, produktionsproblem och utmaningar att skaffa kvalificerad arbetskraft bromsar tillv\u00e4xten.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

H\u00f6g inflation ger risk f\u00f6r att r\u00e4ntorna kan stiga ytterligare. I USA f\u00f6rv\u00e4ntar sig marknaden att Fed kommer att h\u00f6ja r\u00e4ntorna vid 8 tillf\u00e4llen till totalt 2 % med en nuvarande inflationstakt p\u00e5 7 %. R\u00e4ntef\u00f6rv\u00e4ntningar och inflationsf\u00f6rv\u00e4ntningar \u00e4r inte kopplade. Antingen kommer inflationen ner 2022\/2023, annars m\u00e5ste r\u00e4ntan stiga mycket mer.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Fed m\u00e5ste vara noga med att inte h\u00f6ja r\u00e4ntorna f\u00f6r mycket. Det kommer att bryta ekonomisk tillv\u00e4xt. Vi tror p\u00e5 en m\u00e5ttlig r\u00e4nteuppg\u00e5ng och en fortsatt stark negativ realr\u00e4nta.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

I Europa f\u00f6rv\u00e4ntar vi oss inga st\u00f6rre f\u00f6r\u00e4ndringar. 5-\u00e5riga swappr\u00e4ntor har \u00e4ntligen passerat nollstrecket. L\u00e5g tillv\u00e4xt och l\u00e5g inflation g\u00f6r att r\u00e4ntorna blir l\u00e5ga under l\u00e5ng tid.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Kreditspreadar – Stabilt sidol\u00e4ge<\/strong>
Kreditspreadarna har varit mycket stabila och vi tror att situationen kommer att forts\u00e4tta. Detta forts\u00e4tter eftersom det \u00e4r god ekonomisk tillv\u00e4xt, bra resultat i f\u00f6retagen och l\u00e5ga r\u00e4ntor ger l\u00e5ga spreadar. Inom nordiska investment grade obligationer finns det fortfarande v\u00e4rde i kreditspreadar trots l\u00e5ga niv\u00e5er.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Nordiska high yield obligationer \u00e4r fortsatt attraktiva v\u00e4rderingsm\u00e4ssigt med kreditspreadar p\u00e5 ca. 6 % och defaultrater i intervallet 2-3 %. N\u00e4r vi j\u00e4mf\u00f6r med europeiska high yield kreditspreadar ser vi att nordiska kreditspreadar \u00e4r dubbelt s\u00e5 h\u00f6ga \u2013 det \u00e4r attraktivt.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Sammanfattning<\/strong>
V\u00e4gen centralbankerna k\u00f6r p\u00e5 blir smalare. Nollr\u00e4ntor \u00e4r ingen v\u00e4g ut och inte heller mycket h\u00f6ga r\u00e4ntor. R\u00e4nteniv\u00e5n stiger 2022. Det inneb\u00e4r att den f\u00f6rv\u00e4ntade avkastningen \u00e4r h\u00f6gre 2022 \u00e4n 2021. V\u00e5r uppskattning f\u00f6r den f\u00f6rv\u00e4ntade avkastningen 2022 f\u00f6r obligationer med investment grade \u00e4r 2% till 2,5% i NOK.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Nordiska high yield obligationer \u00e4r v\u00e5rt b\u00e4sta r\u00e4ntekort \u00e4ven i \u00e5r. Trots en avkastning p\u00e5 9,2 % i NOK p\u00e5 marknaden 2021 och 15,7 % i NOK f\u00f6r Alfred Berg Nordic High Yield finns det fortfarande god potential. Vi tror p\u00e5 6-8% avkastning p\u00e5 den nordiska high yield-marknaden i \u00e5r.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

P\u00e5 v\u00e4g in i 2022 st\u00e5r r\u00e4ntemarknaden inf\u00f6r en paradox. Inflationen \u00e4r h\u00f6g och r\u00e4ntorna l\u00e5ga. En av parametrarna b\u00f6r justeras. Vi tror att avkastningen p\u00e5 r\u00e4ntefonder i \u00e5r kan bli h\u00f6gre \u00e4n 2021<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":16125,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[65],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-5390","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-news-sv"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nSmalare v\u00e4g fram\u00e5t - Alfredberg<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/no.staging.alfredberg.com\/sv\/smalare-vag-framat\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"sv_SE\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Smalare v\u00e4g fram\u00e5t - Alfredberg\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"P\u00e5 v\u00e4g in i 2022 st\u00e5r r\u00e4ntemarknaden inf\u00f6r en paradox. 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