{"id":5330,"date":"2022-01-12T12:15:01","date_gmt":"2022-01-12T11:15:01","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/no.staging.alfredberg.com\/?p=5330"},"modified":"2022-06-21T16:28:52","modified_gmt":"2022-06-21T14:28:52","slug":"december2021","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/no.staging.alfredberg.com\/sv\/december2021\/","title":{"rendered":"M\u00e5nadsrapport december 2021"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
<\/div>\n\n\n\n

Ekonomi och r\u00e4ntor<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

V\u00e4rldens finansmarknader \u00e5terh\u00e4mtade mycket av nedg\u00e5ngen orsakad av inflationsr\u00e4dsla och den nya Omicron-varianten som skapade turbulens i slutet av november.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Givet de h\u00f6ga inflationssiffrorna h\u00e5ller i sig f\u00f6rv\u00e4ntas centralbankerna forts\u00e4tta med \u00e5tstramningen av penningpolitiken och forts\u00e4tta h\u00f6ja r\u00e4ntorna under 2022. I december valde den amerikanska centralbanken att p\u00e5skynda minskningen av st\u00f6dk\u00f6pen. Ett uttalat n\u00f6dv\u00e4ndigt steg innan man h\u00f6jer r\u00e4ntorna.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

I Norden \u00e4r stigande kraftpriser en stor drivkraft f\u00f6r inflationssiffrorna, och utesluter vi dessa ser vi ett betydligt l\u00e4gre inflationstryck. Inflationsf\u00f6rv\u00e4ntningarna tycks \u00e5 andra sidan \u00e5terspeglas i den f\u00f6rv\u00e4ntade l\u00f6neutvecklingen. De flesta ekonomer r\u00e4knar med st\u00f6rre l\u00f6ne\u00f6kningar under 2022. I flera l\u00e4nder observerar vi ocks\u00e5 fortfarande rekordm\u00e5nga vakanser, i f\u00f6rh\u00e5llande till andelen arbetsl\u00f6sa. I kombination med h\u00f6gre inflation f\u00f6rv\u00e4ntas detta f\u00e5 effekt p\u00e5 l\u00f6nerna.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u00c4ven om marknaden f\u00f6rv\u00e4ntar sig en stramare penningpolitik fr\u00e5n centralbankerna 2022 och 2023 ser vi inte samma press p\u00e5 den l\u00e4ngre \u00e4nden av avkastningskurvan. Vi observerar snarare en relativt platt kurva. Detta g\u00e5r emot tanken att inflation inte \u00e4r ett tillf\u00e4lligt fenomen. En uth\u00e5llig inflation v\u00e4ntas h\u00f6ja de nominella r\u00e4ntorna, \u00e4ven l\u00e4ngre ut p\u00e5 kurvan. Men den 10-\u00e5riga amerikanska statobligationssr\u00e4ntan l\u00e5g p\u00e5 1,51 % i slutet av m\u00e5naden.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Den platta kurvan belyser d\u00e4rf\u00f6r de problem centralbankerna st\u00e5r inf\u00f6r. Inflationen visar sig vara mer f\u00f6rankrad \u00e4n man ursprungligen trodde, men det r\u00e5der stor os\u00e4kerhet om vilka r\u00e4ntor ekonomierna klarar av. V\u00e4rldsekonomin pr\u00e4glas fortfarande av corona och det har skett en stor skulduppbyggnad de senaste 10-15 \u00e5ren till f\u00f6ljd av en l\u00f6s penningpolitik. F\u00f6r h\u00f6ga r\u00e4ntor kan d\u00e4rf\u00f6r stoppa den ekonomiska tillv\u00e4xten.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Hittills ser det ut som att b\u00f6rserna har \u00e5terh\u00e4mtat sig fr\u00e5n Omicron-r\u00e4dslan och ser fram emot det kommande \u00e5ret. S&P 500 hamnade p\u00e5 1,21 % i december och 30,14 % totalt 2021. I de f\u00f6rsta studierna ser varianten mer smittsam ut men med ett mildare sjukdomsf\u00f6rlopp, sjukdomssymtom och fall av allvarliga komplikationer. Detta \u00e4r sannolikt anledningen, i kombination med en h\u00f6g vaccinationsgrad, att flera l\u00e4nder nu tolererar h\u00f6gre infektionsniv\u00e5er \u00e4n vad som observerats i tidigare varianter.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

I takt med att vi fick en \u00f6verblick \u00f6ver Omicron-variantens omfattning och sv\u00e5righetsgrad har de l\u00e5nga r\u00e4ntorna stigit. Norska 10-\u00e5riga statsobligationer \u00e4r upp 22 punkter till 1,70 %, Tyskland upp 17 punkter till -0,18 %, Sverige upp 9 punkter till 0,22 % och USA upp 7 punkter till 1,51 %.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Uppifr\u00e5n sett; Amerikansk, norsk, svensk och tysk 10 \u00e5rs statsr\u00e4nta, senaste 2 \u00e5ren<\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Sedan slutet av november har kreditspreadarna varit stabila och kommit ner n\u00e5gra punkter. Kreditmarknaden ser d\u00e4rf\u00f6r inte ut att r\u00e4kna med fortsatt oro i b\u00f6rjan av 2022. Juluppeh\u00e5llet f\u00f6r nyemissioner startade tidigare \u00e4n f\u00f6reg\u00e5ende \u00e5r till f\u00f6ljd av oroligheterna i b\u00f6rjan av december. Det f\u00f6rv\u00e4ntas d\u00e4rf\u00f6r bli n\u00e5got h\u00f6gre finansieringsbehov f\u00f6r f\u00f6retagen i b\u00f6rjan av januari.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Utvecklingen i v\u00e5ra r\u00e4ntefonder<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Alfred Berg Income D<\/strong> 
Fonden gav en avkastning p\u00e5 0,18% i december Shipping, Finance, Hybrid och Real Estate bidrog mest till avkastningen i december. L\u00e5nga fastr\u00e4nteobligationer i investment grade bidrog minst till avkastningen och bolag som p\u00e5verkas negativt av nedst\u00e4ngningar som Color Group. Vi ser m\u00f6jligheter p\u00e5 dagens marknad men har en bra likviditetsbuffert om volatiliteten \u00f6kar.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Alfred Berg High Yield (NOK)<\/strong>
Fonden var upp 0,71% i december. Efter rekordvolymer i oktober, mattades den prim\u00e4ra marknaden f\u00f6r Nordic High yield under \u00e5rets tv\u00e5 sista m\u00e5nader. I december emitterades endast 5,0 miljarder SEK i nya obligationer, varav cirka 1,6 miljarder emitterades av en emittent. Totalt 2021 har emittenter tagit in n\u00e4stan 200 miljarder SEK, upp fr\u00e5n 90 miljarder SEK 2020. Ungef\u00e4r h\u00e4lften av 2021 \u00e5rs volym har kommit fr\u00e5n f\u00f6rstag\u00e5ngsemittenter, vilket ger investerare goda m\u00f6jligheter att diversifiera sig till nya f\u00f6retag och sektorer. 10 nya obligationer emitterades f\u00f6rra m\u00e5naden. Bland de nya obligationsemissionerna i december hittar vi teknikbolaget Fingerprint Cards AB, logibolaget United Camping AB och rederiet Altera Shuttle Tankers. Vi f\u00f6rv\u00e4ntar oss fortsatt volatilitet och os\u00e4kerhet med avseende p\u00e5 den verkliga fundamentala effekten p\u00e5 den globala ekonomin fr\u00e5n coronaviruset. Stigande r\u00e4ntor och inflation kan utg\u00f6ra ett hot p\u00e5 l\u00e4ngre sikt. R\u00e4nteh\u00f6jningar och nedtrappning av obligationsk\u00f6p \u00e4r dock v\u00e4l f\u00f6rv\u00e4ntade och \u00e5terspeglas i nuvarande marknadspriser. Vi tror att den nuvarande marknaden kan skapa m\u00f6jligheter f\u00f6r den l\u00e5ngsiktiga investeraren. Vi r\u00e4knar med att aktiviteten p\u00e5 den nordiska prim\u00e4rmarknaden tar fart igen fr\u00e5n mitten av januari.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Nordiska aktier december<\/strong>
<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Det blev en bra avslutning p\u00e5 2021 p\u00e5 de flesta av v\u00e4rldens ledande b\u00f6rser, vilket inte \u00e4r ovanligt under ett bra b\u00f6rs\u00e5r. Ledande index i Nordamerika och Europa steg 3-6% i lokal valuta. Asien sl\u00e4pade lite efter, men med ett stort gap mellan respektive l\u00e4nder.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Bland sektorerna var konsumentvarorna b\u00e4st i Norden i december, f\u00f6ljt av material och informationsteknologi. Sektorer med l\u00e4gst avkastning var fastigheter, kommunikationstj\u00e4nster och finans<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Alfred Berg Nordic Small Cap ESG<\/strong>
Fonden \u00f6kade med 5,1% under december medan fondens j\u00e4mf\u00f6relseindex, Carnegie Nordic Small Cap, \u00f6kade med 3,7%. P\u00e5 sektorniv\u00e5 s\u00e5 var vid m\u00e5nadens slut s\u00e4llank\u00f6psvaror den st\u00f6rsta \u00f6vervikten (+5,2%) f\u00f6ljt av industrisektorn (+2,8%). Sektorn f\u00f6r l\u00e4kemedel utgjorde den st\u00f6rsta undervikten (-4,5%) f\u00f6ljt av sektorn f\u00f6r konsument dagligvaror (-3,6%). P\u00e5 bolagsniv\u00e5 s\u00e5 utgjorde positionerna i Bufab (+2,6%) Solar A\/S (+2,6%) och Samh\u00e4llsbyggnadsbolaget i Norden AB (+2,6%) de st\u00f6rsta \u00f6vervikterna.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

De aktier som bidrog mest till fondens relativa utveckling under m\u00e5naden var innehaven i Nobina, Medicover och Solar A\/S. De aktier som utvecklades s\u00e4mst under m\u00e5naden i relativa termer var Isofol Medical, Marimekko Oyj samt undervikten i Storskogen Group AB.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Under m\u00e5naden har vi bland annat k\u00f6pt aktier i Beijer Alma AB, Topdanmark A\/S och Addtech. Vi g\u00f6r fortsatt en positiv bed\u00f6mning av vissa bolag inom h\u00e4lsosektorn som vi anser \u00e4r l\u00e5gt v\u00e4rderade. Undervikter inom sektorer s\u00e5som industri och s\u00e4llank\u00f6psvaror som kom att p\u00e5verkas kraftigt av nedst\u00e4ngningar och minskad efterfr\u00e5gan under pandemin har st\u00e4ngts under \u00e5ret. Vi \u00e4r \u201dstock pickers\u201d och har d\u00e4rmed ingen uttalad sektorallokering, men bolag inom samma sektorer har vanligtvis vissa gemensamma drag i och med detta kan v\u00e5ra sektorvikter komma att p\u00e5verkas.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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