{"id":4987,"date":"2021-11-08T13:43:23","date_gmt":"2021-11-08T12:43:23","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/no.staging.alfredberg.com\/?p=4987"},"modified":"2022-06-21T16:27:10","modified_gmt":"2022-06-21T14:27:10","slug":"manadsrapport-oktober-2021","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/no.staging.alfredberg.com\/sv\/manadsrapport-oktober-2021\/","title":{"rendered":"M\u00e5nadsrapport oktober 2021"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
<\/div>\n\n\n\n

Ekonomi och r\u00e4ntor<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Det var en relativt bra m\u00e5nad f\u00f6r v\u00e4rldens finansmarknader. B\u00f6rserna steg i samband med goda resultatsiffror bland f\u00f6retagen och kreditspreadarna har varit stabila. De finansiella marknaderna \u00e4r d\u00e4rf\u00f6r fortfarande optimistiska trots att vi fortfarande ser h\u00f6ga inflationssiffror i m\u00e5nga l\u00e4nder.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Inflationssiffrorna verkar nu vara mindre tillf\u00e4lliga \u00e4n vad som f\u00f6rst antogs. M\u00e5nga kommentarer pekar p\u00e5 att de nuvarande inflationssiffrorna har orsakat effekter p\u00e5 utbudssidan, s\u00e4rskilt h\u00f6jda priser p\u00e5 insatsvaror och flaskhalsar i transporter. Samtidigt har det funnits en uppd\u00e4md efterfr\u00e5gan till f\u00f6ljd av pandemin.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Den \u00f6kade efterfr\u00e5gan och flaskhalsarna i produktion och transporter v\u00e4ntas p\u00e5 sikt bromsa in och d\u00e4rmed minska inflationstrycket. Att man dessutom d\u00e4rf\u00f6r observerar \u00f6kat l\u00f6netryck och h\u00f6g efterfr\u00e5gan p\u00e5 arbetskraft, framf\u00f6r allt i USA, skapar farh\u00e5gor f\u00f6r att arbetsmarknaden kan orsaka ytterligare inflationstryck. Detta kan potentiellt orsaka en mer varaktig \u00f6kning av inflationsf\u00f6rv\u00e4ntningarna. \u00c5 andra sidan visar indikatorer p\u00e5 inflationsf\u00f6rv\u00e4ntningar (marknadspriss\u00e4ttning och unders\u00f6kningar) att \u00e4ven om v\u00e4rdena \u00e4r h\u00f6gre \u00e4n under de f\u00f6reg\u00e5ende 10 \u00e5ren och \u00f6ver inflationsm\u00e5let, \u00e4r de fortfarande m\u00e5ttliga och f\u00f6ruts\u00e4ger inte betydande l\u00e5ngsiktig inflation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Med tanke p\u00e5 marknadsl\u00e4get r\u00e5der stor os\u00e4kerhet kring centralbankens beslut fram\u00e5t och det \u00e4r extra sp\u00e4nning knuten till m\u00f6tena under f\u00f6rsta halvan av november. De flesta centralbanker har tydligt kommunicerat att de vill minska st\u00f6dk\u00f6pen, med Fed som kommunicerat att detta kan komma redan i november. Med tanke p\u00e5 utvecklingen i oktober framst\u00e5r detta nu som \u00e4nnu mer sannolikt. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Centralbankerna, med undantag f\u00f6r Norges Bank, har varit medvetna om att eventuella r\u00e4nteh\u00f6jningar ligger l\u00e5ngt framme. De finansiella marknaderna verkar nu ha f\u00f6rekommit dem. Inom USD, EUR och SEK har nu r\u00e4nteh\u00f6jningar prisats in, vilket \u00e4nnu inte f\u00f6rutsp\u00e5tts av centralbankerna. N\u00e4r vi samtidigt observerar en utplaning av avkastningskurvan kan det tyda p\u00e5 att marknaden f\u00f6rv\u00e4ntar sig att centralbankerna m\u00e5ste reagera p\u00e5 h\u00f6gre inflationssiffror. I oktober var dock ECB tydlig med att man inte t\u00e4nkte sig att villkoren f\u00f6r r\u00e4nteh\u00f6jningar, som marknaden f\u00f6rv\u00e4ntat sig, skulle uppfyllas vid den tidpunkten. Korta r\u00e4ntor i de flesta valutor har stigit under hela oktober. 3-\u00e5rsr\u00e4ntan i NOK, SEK, EUR, USD \u00f6kade med 25-30 bps. I det l\u00e5nga loppet, 10 \u00e5r, ser vi dock en betydligt mer m\u00e5ttlig \u00f6kning p\u00e5 5-15bps. Detta kan d\u00e4rf\u00f6r tyda p\u00e5 att r\u00e4nteuppg\u00e5ngen inte n\u00f6dv\u00e4ndigtvis beror p\u00e5 f\u00f6rb\u00e4ttrade ekonomiska utsikter, utan snarare en f\u00f6rv\u00e4ntad framtida \u00e5tstramning av centralbankerna.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Fr\u00e5n toppen; Amerikansk, norsk, svensk och tysk 10 \u00e5rs statsr\u00e4nta, senaste 2 \u00e5ren<\/strong><\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
Kilde: Bloomberg\/ Alfred Berg <\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

\u00c4ven med den \u00f6kade os\u00e4kerheten har kreditspreadar varit relativt of\u00f6r\u00e4ndrade i de flesta valutor. Om n\u00e5got ser vi en n\u00e5got mjukare marknad i EUR, visst intr\u00e4de i USD och stabila kreditspreadar i NOK och SEK. Det \u00e4r ocks\u00e5 fortsatt god aktivitet p\u00e5 f\u00f6rstahandsmarknaden.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Utvecklingen av kreditspreadar f\u00f6r Norge, Europa och USA de senaste 5 \u00e5ren<\/strong><\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
Kilde: Bloomberg\/ Alfred Berg <\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Utvecklingen i v\u00e5ra r\u00e4ntefonder<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Nordisk Investment Grade<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Alfred Berg Nordic Investment Grade NOK (Inst)<\/a> <\/strong>steg 0,01 % i oktober. Vi ser en effekt av n\u00e5got stigande r\u00e4ntor i v\u00e5ra nordiska portf\u00f6ljer, d\u00e4r portf\u00f6ljer med l\u00e4ngre duration p\u00e5verkas mest negativt.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Alfred Berg Income SEK (netto)<\/a> <\/strong>sj\u00f6nk -0,08% i oktober. Det \u00e4r fr\u00e4mst stigande kreditr\u00e4ntepremier inom Fastigheter och Finans som f\u00f6rklarar den svaga avkastningen i oktober, och framf\u00f6r allt hybridkapitalet var svagt. Obligationer i BB-segmentet i EUR hade ocks\u00e5 en svag m\u00e5nad. Detta motverkades av en god utveckling inom sj\u00f6fart och industri. Under oktober deltog vi i n\u00e5gra nya obligationer som Rederiet Ecker\u00f6, Vestum AB, Viacon, Hemistaden AB och f\u00f6rv\u00e4rvsfinansieringen (Cidron Romanov Ltd) fr\u00e5n Nordax Bank n\u00e4r de k\u00f6pte Bank Norwegian.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Alfred Berg Nordic High Yield NOK (classic)<\/a> <\/strong>steg 0,58 % i oktober. Efter en n\u00e5got lugnare september sattes nytt rekord i m\u00e5nadsvolym p\u00e5 emissionsmarknaden f\u00f6r nordiska h\u00f6ga r\u00e4ntor. L\u00e5n f\u00f6r n\u00e4stan 30 miljarder norska kronor emitterades, f\u00f6rdelat p\u00e5 25 obligationer. Bland de nya l\u00e5nen fanns Cidron Romanov Ltd., ett finansieringsbolag som anv\u00e4ndes f\u00f6r att finansiera Nordax f\u00f6rv\u00e4rv av Bank Norwegian, offshorebolaget Tidewater Inc. och f\u00e4rjebolaget Ecker\u00f6. Fram\u00f6ver f\u00f6rv\u00e4ntar vi oss fortfarande h\u00f6g volatilitet och os\u00e4kerhet med tanke p\u00e5 den verkliga fundamentala effekten av coronaviruset p\u00e5 den globala ekonomin. Stigande r\u00e4ntor och inflation kan utg\u00f6ra ett l\u00e5ngsiktigt hot. Men vi \u00e4r mer bekv\u00e4ma med dagens niv\u00e5er och framtidsutsikter \u00e4n vi var tidigare under krisen. Vi tror att dagens marknad skapar m\u00f6jligheter f\u00f6r den l\u00e5ngsiktiga investeraren. Emissionsmarknaden f\u00f6rv\u00e4ntas vara mycket aktiv under den kommande m\u00e5naden.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n

Nordiska aktier<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Efter en volatil och svag b\u00f6rsm\u00e5nad i september har oktober varit stabilare. De flesta av v\u00e4rldens ledande index g\u00e5r upp och det g\u00e4ller \u00e4ven Norden.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Medan vi i september fokuserade mycket p\u00e5 skuldsituationen i den kinesiska fastighetssektorn, har oktober varit en m\u00e5nad d\u00e4r f\u00f6retagsrapportering har dominerat nyhetsbilden. Och i stort sett har rapporteringen i Norden varit bra. Oms\u00e4ttningsm\u00e4ssigt har skillnaden mellan f\u00f6rv\u00e4ntat och realiserat inte varit s\u00e5 stor, men p\u00e5 det nedersta raden har bolagen sammantaget levererat drygt 4% \u00f6ver f\u00f6rv\u00e4ntan. S\u00e5 l\u00f6nsamheten har \u00f6verraskat positivt. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Bland sektorerna var fastigheterna b\u00e4st i Norden i oktober, f\u00f6ljt av h\u00e4lsa och finans. Det \u00e4r stor spridning inom f\u00e4ltet, inom h\u00e4lsosektorn skilde det n\u00e4stan 25 procentenheter i avkastning mellan b\u00e4sta och svagaste aktien under oktober. Branscher med l\u00e4gst avkastning var kommunikationstj\u00e4nster, IT och energi, i den ordningen<\/p>\n<\/div><\/div>\n\n\n\n

Alfred Berg Nordic Small Cap ESG SEK (classic)<\/a> <\/strong>steg 5,66 % under m\u00e5naden, medan fondens j\u00e4mf\u00f6relseindex, Carnegie Nordic Small Cap, \u00f6kade med 5,3 %. P\u00e5 sektorniv\u00e5, i slutet av m\u00e5naden, var kapitalvaror den st\u00f6rsta \u00f6vervikten (+ 5,6 %), f\u00f6ljt av industrisektorn (+ 3,9 %). Fastighetssektorn stod f\u00f6r den st\u00f6rsta undervikten (-4,2 %) f\u00f6ljt av l\u00e4kemedelssektorn (-4 %). P\u00e5 f\u00f6retagsniv\u00e5 var positionerna i Bufab AB (+ 2,5 %), Solar A\/S (+ 2,3 %) och Thule AB (+ 2 %) de st\u00f6rsta \u00f6vervikterna. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

De aktier som bidrog mest till fondens relativa utveckling under m\u00e5naden var innehaven i NP3 Fastigheter AB, Lindab International AB och Bufab AB. De aktier som gick s\u00e4mst under m\u00e5naden var relativt f\u00f6rra m\u00e5nadens vinnare Sedana Medical AB och Elkem ASA och XSpray Pharma AB. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Under m\u00e5naden har vi k\u00f6pt aktier i bland annat Hexatronic Group AB, Fiskars Oyj, Topdanmark A\/S och HMS Networks AB. Vi har fortsatt en positiv bed\u00f6mning av vissa f\u00f6retag inom v\u00e5rdsektorn som vi anser vara underv\u00e4rderade. Undervikter i sektorer, som industri och s\u00e4llank\u00f6psvaror, som p\u00e5verkades starkt av nedl\u00e4ggningar och minskad efterfr\u00e5gan under 2020, st\u00e4ngdes i v\u00e5ras. Vi \u00e4r \u00abaktieplockare\u00bb och har d\u00e4rf\u00f6r ingen angiven sektorf\u00f6rdelning, men f\u00f6retag inom samma sektorer har oftast vissa gemensamma drag. Som ett resultat kan sektorvikter p\u00e5verkas.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Det var en relativt bra m\u00e5nad f\u00f6r v\u00e4rldens finansmarknader. B\u00f6rserna steg i samband med goda resultatsiffror bland f\u00f6retagen och kreditspreadarna har varit stabila. De finansiella marknaderna \u00e4r d\u00e4rf\u00f6r fortfarande optimistiska trots att vi fortfarande ser h\u00f6ga inflationssiffror i m\u00e5nga l\u00e4nder.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":16,"featured_media":4973,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[65],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-4987","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-news-sv"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nM\u00e5nadsrapport oktober 2021 - Alfredberg<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/no.staging.alfredberg.com\/sv\/manadsrapport-oktober-2021\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"sv_SE\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"M\u00e5nadsrapport oktober 2021 - Alfredberg\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Det var en relativt bra m\u00e5nad f\u00f6r v\u00e4rldens finansmarknader. B\u00f6rserna steg i samband med goda resultatsiffror bland f\u00f6retagen och kreditspreadarna har varit stabila. 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